NAND flash chip prices, which should have peaked due to huge supply cuts earlier in the second quarter, will likely begin drifting lower in May-June as current demand growth is too limited to continue the price rally, according to Taiwan's memory card makers. However, the prices are expected to stage an upturn in the second half of 2009, when the seasonal pickup in demand takes place, said the makers.
Fluctuations in NAND flash prices are expected despite recent remarks by SanDisk CEO Eli Harari saying he believes the NAND flash industry has reached a healthier supply-demand dynamic as a result of suppliers' production cutbacks. Harari commented that the global NAND flash market has improved substantially despite order visibility still being limited, and the industry outlook is looking more positive compared to earlier in the year.
Phison Electronics has said revenues for May are likely to decrease 15-20% sequentially due to weaker demand. The flash controller design house has adopted a cautious attitude toward the second quarter, which is traditionally a profitable quarter for many NAND flash device specialists.
Phison posted its second consecutive month of growth in April.
Memory module makers have commented that NAND flash pricing saw growth momentum after hitting bottom in the first quarter. But the pricing trend is likely to stagnate or dip slightly by June due to traditional seasonality, indicated the makers.
For the latter half of 2009, makers have expressed optimism about NAND flash demand for slim solid state drives (SSDs) and built-in applications used in portable electronics devices such as handsets.
Quotes gathered by DRAMeXchange show that average spot prices of mainstream 16Gb MLC and 8Gb chips remained relatively unchanged at US$4.09 and US$3.69, respectively, as of 11:00 (UTC+8) today (May 21). Meanwhile, prices for 2GB memory cards stood at up to US$4.55.
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