Segment could account for more than 30 percent of total module market by 201.
While the European market for Photovoltaic (PV) installations is suffering because of the economic downturn gripping the globe, the development of thin-film PV technology is thriving and could drive future growth of the European PV marketplace, according to iSuppli Corp.
Despite a more than 50 percent drop in the contract price of polysilicon since last year, the market outlook for thin-film solar modules remains promising. iSuppli projects that thin-film based PV solar modules will grow to account for more than 30 percent of the total module market by 2013, up from 14 percent in 2008.
The market viability of thin-film has been solidly established by First Solar Inc. as it rockets to become the world’s top solar panel maker this year, with more than a gigawatt of production. At the same time, the company has driven its cost of production to less than 90 cents per watt, keeping its costs at approximately half the level of crystalline module producers.
A Bit of Background
Most solar panels are made of crystalline wafers with 180-230 microns of polysilicon. In contrast, thin-film panels are made by depositing multiple layers of other materials a few micrometers in thickness on a substrate. The main trade off between the two technologies is efficiency versus cost per watt of electricity generation. Thin-film panels are less efficient at converting sunlight to electricity, but they also cost significantly less to make. Significantly, thin-film is at a disadvantage when installation space is limited, such as a residential rooftop. A thin-film installation can take 15 percent to 40 percent more space to achieve the same total system wattage output as crystalline. This tends to limit its appeal in certain applications.
A Price Learning Curve
Thin-film module average prices are expected to decline to $1.40 next year, down from $1.70 in 2009. Crystalline panel average prices are expected to drop to $2.00 in 2010, down from $2.50 this year. Through 2012, iSuppli expects crystalline prices to close the gap to some degree because its purveyors collectively have deeper pockets and they keep pouring on the capital spending, technology R&D developments and manufacturing refinements.
The Many Technologies of Thin-Film
There are many types of thin-film PV technologies. Their efficiencies are mostly less than 10 percent, but some have lab results pushing into the mid-teens. Some of these technologies are what is known as single-junction, where one diode is used. Recent developments use multiple junctions stacked on top of each other—also called tandem and triple junction—so that more parts of the spectra can be absorbed using different combinations, or junctions, of material.
Most of these technologies rely on variants of Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD), or screen printing, to deposit the layers of materials on various substrates, i.e. glass and various plastics. Some recent technologies are using variants of ink-jet printing to more quickly deposit the materials. Another accelerator of thin-film technology is the rising availability of turn-key production lines from companies such as Applied Materials, Oerlikon, and Centrotherm.
Silicon-based thin-films include various combinations of amorphous (aSi) and micro-Silicon (µSi), which trade off cost and light-absorption capabilities. In development or early production are Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC), which use light absorbing dyes. A company called G24i has claimed the first commercial shipments of this technology. Organic/polymer technology also is in development, with reports of lab efficiencies approaching 7 percent.
After many years of technology and production technique development CIS/CIGS (Copper, Indium, (di)Selenide/ Copper, Indium, Gallium,(di)Selenide) technologies have begun significant shipments this year. Nanosolar, one of the highest profile companies in this area, in September announced initial volume shipments using its high throughput roll-to-roll production process as it starts serving a $4.1 billion contract backlog. Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) is today’s biggest commercial thin-film technology, with First Solar being its main purveyor. CdTe accounts for 53 percent of 2009 thin-film production on a watts basis. It will remain the dominant thin-film technology but iSuppli is predicting that advanced aSi/µSi technologies—i.e. tandem and triple junction— as well as CIS/CIGS technologies, will more evenly share the market with CdTe by 2013.
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